So who's catching?

"Mets' GM Omar Minaya said in a Friday press conference on WFAN-Radio that the team has extended offers to both Hernandez and Bengie Molina."

As of today, the Mets have that big bat at 1B and are now moving on to their catching void. Mets fans have been spoiled for quite some time when it comes to catching. Before the Piazza acquisition in 1998, the Mets had the super bat of Todd Hundley, who promptly fell apart afterwards (steroids have been a rumor). Now the Mets are moving on to the next era of catching in New York. This off-season presents quite a few tasty possibilities, but the Mets shouldn't limit themselves to just the free agent market, and thankfully they aren't. While Molina currently looks like Omar's favorite, it is hard to deny that Hernandez makes the most sense. Hernandez spent time with pitching coach Rick Peterson in Oakland, and has said that he not only understands Peterson's calling system, but also actually prefers it (Peterson supposedly has a change of calls for every count of the at bat, and for every situation outs and runners wise). Peterson has been for quite some time sweet talking management about Hernandez, and Hernandez has been telling San Diego papers the entire 2005 season that the Mets make a quite lovely destination. Put 5 and 5 together, and you get number 55 in a Mets uniform, right?

Not so fast... Bengie Molina is also a free agent, and he is also widely regarded as a superior defensive catcher who can swing that bat a bit. He is also accustomed to the "spotlight" (he's spent his entire career in LA and has been to the playoffs 3 times in the past 4 seasons, while Hernandez has been to the playoffs every year of his career except for 2004) and has family in New York that he says have pressured him to sign with the Mets. On top of that, the Reds are also listening to the demands from their catcher (Jason LaRue), he has demanded a trade out of Cincinatti if they don't resign him to a long-term contract (I guess that means they don't want to sign him?). On top of that, the Mariners are going to move Yorvit Torrealba and the Marlins and Devil Rays are looking to ship off their catchers (Paul Lo Duca and Toby Hall respectively).

In my opinion the best FA option is clearly Ramon Hernandez (2 years younger and a better hitter). I would also say that Jason LaRue is the best hitting option of all the catchers available, while Yorvit Torrealba is most likely the best fielder of the bunch.

2005 WinShares
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Player       Games PA's  Inn  Batting  Fielding  Total
------------------------------------------------------
Hernandez       99  392  806      8.6       1.8     11
Molina         119  449  873      8.1       6.9     14
LaRue          110  422  915     13.3       4.4     18
Torrealba       76  224  537     -0.6       1.8      1
Piazza         113  442  809      9.7       3.3     13

If the Mets decide to bring back Piazza, then they would probably
be best off also making a trade for a third catcher (ala the 2005
Angels with Josh Pual). I would recommend a trade with Seattle
for Torrealba (nothing gets by him, seriously), say Royce Ring or
Ambriorix Concepcion in a one-for-one swap with Torrealba.
If the Mets want to make a trade for a starter, I would reccomend
a Jae Seo or Steve Trachsel for Jason LaRue swap (the Reds need
pitching, and both would probably be their "ace"). As for how much
Hernandez should cost as a free agent, I will take a shot at calculating
this. In my opinion, the fielding of a catcher should make up a little
less than half his value, while his offense should makes up a little
more than half; let's go with 45% and 55%.

------------------------------------------------------
Player       Games PA's  Inn  Batting  Fielding  Total
------------------------------------------------------
Hernandez      99   392  806      8.6       1.8     11

8.6 * .55 = 4.73 million
1.8 * .45 = 0.81 million
Total:    = 5.54 million

Averages 115 games per season.

162/115 = 1.41
1.41 * 5.54 million = 7.81 million


Clearly this is far from an accurate method to predict the amount of money
the Mets should throw Ramon's way, but I don't think this is too far off.
A 3-year 24 million dollar deal would make Hernandez the cheapest
planned everyday catcher for the Mets in quite some time, but it also locks
up a solid catcher through the rest of his prime. If the Mets end up with
Hernandez or LaRue, they could probably afford to go through a season of
Anderson Hernandez/Jeff Keppinger at 2B (not that I don't like Keppinger)
without looking for help offensively.