Manny gives the Mets a hand...

"The Ritz Towers penthouse perch that Red Sox outfielder Manny Ramirez and his wife, Juliana, have called home for several seasons is on the market for $6.9 million."

Hmm, what in the world could this mean? Oh, that's right... Manny wants out of Boston, has told one of his personel assistants from Cleveland to move to NY and the Mets are heavily pursuing Ramirez. The Mets want what the 2004 Red Sox had --a 3-4 combo of Ramirez and Ortiz that would hit every other pitch out of the park. Well, the best way to do that is to acquire Ramirez and Ortiz; Ortiz is going nowhere, but Ramirez will be shopped again. The Mets got Delgado to be their Ortiz, now they want Ramirez. Continue to do things like this Manny, it only helps the Mets. The more he shows that he wants out of Boston, and the further the Red Sox get from free agents Johnny Damon and Bill Mueller, the better. The Sox desperatly want to add pitching and keep Damon, but they can't do so unless they free up some money, and only trading Manny can accomplish that in a heartbeat. The Mets should hang a deal of Floyd and Seo for Ramirez and no cash consideration and see what happens; you'd have to imagine that Boston would eventually give in. The Sox need to dump salary, and need to get on with themselves, so why give them top notch young talent on top of it?

2006 opening day lineup(?):
1)Reyes SS
2)Beltran CF
3)Ramirez LF
4)Delgado 1B
5)Wright 3B
6)Nady/Diaz RF
7)Hernandez/LaRue/Molina/Hall C
8 Pick a 2B...

Mets make offer to D-rays...

"The Mets have offered a package headed by second baseman Anderson Hernandez while the Devil Rays want Aaron Heilman in exchange for Hall, the NY Newsday reports."

Apparently there is also a pitching prospect and another minor leaguer in the package. I doubt that the Mets seriously want Hall, it makes no sense. When you have options like LaRue and Hernandez out there, why waste time with Hall (especially when Hernandez should be 2nd or 3rd on the depth chart for 2B)? I wouldn't look too far into this one, the more interesting news at the moment is the reprecussions that Ryan to the Jays and Wagner to the Mets is causing; here's the buzz:

• The Phillies want Tom Gordon to replace Wagner as their closer
• The Indians want Trevor Hoffman (they wanted Ryan)
• The Orioles want to replace Ryan with Todd Jones (of Florida)

Welcome to New York, number 21...

Well, who else was surprised to see that Delgado in fact did not get to keep his number 25 (although I'm sure it will be free by opening day) and will now be number 21? I like Delgado wearing 21, it says something about his cultural pride. I'd have to guess that when he was asked which number he would like to wear, that he picked 21 because of Clemente (who for personal reasons I have a huge amount of respect for). Only 2 hours after the press conference, this huge news broke out:

"The Mets have acquired outfielder Tike Redman from the Pirates for cash considerations."

Okay, so that's not exactly huge news, but to me I see it as a precursor. Why in the world would the Mets need a speedy, solid defensive OF'r? I can tell you this much, it isn't because he started the downfall of Looper's Mets career (and that was one hell of an at bat), it's because of his value as a late inning defensive replacement. If I was a better, I'd put money on this: Manny Ramirez will be hitting 3rd for the Mets on opening day. Shortly after this news, breaking news hit the world and I was right, Minaya had to pony up with that 4th year...

"Left handed pitcher Billy Wagner has agreed to a 4-year deal with the New York Mets, which includes a 5th-year option and could be worth as much as 50 million."

5 years? 50 million? In essence, Wagner got a 4-year 40 million dollar deal (4 million a year), with a 5th year option (details haven't been released yet, but if it is based on performance, you can bet that it will be based on games finished over the 2009 seaon). I'm not a big fan of overpaying for a closer (especially when I'd much rather be handing 5/50 to A.J. Burnett), but the Mets desperately need somebody in the bullpen to shut down the opposition (although I see Zambrano, Seo, Bell, and Padilla as pretty good bets to do the same). I like this signing, but I'm not going to lie, I don't like wasting money on closers, and I don't like giving out even 3-years to Wagner (yet along possibly 5). I'll give this deal a 3 out of 5 rating. This deal adds more of a benefit to the Delgado deal, so it's even less costly to lose Petit, Jacobs, and Psomas (that still irks me). Good luck Omar, I can't wait to see 24 and 21 go back-to-back for the first time next season!

Omar's not done yet...

"Mets and Red Sox execs have agreed to discuss Manny Ramirez at the winter meetings in Dallas in early December, and Omar Minaya recently told one baseball person, "I'm going for it.""

"The Daily News obtained a copy of the advertisement yesterday that announces: "Manny's on board: Mets on the rise.""

That first quote is new, the second one is from Wednesday morning. Omar is clearly obsessed with offense and really wants to have Ramirez in Flushing. Who can blame him? The problem is, at what cost do you acquire Ramirez for? It's no secret that Boston wants to rid themselves of that contract (irrevocable waivers, benching him the days before the trade deadline, pressing the Mets to trade for him every offseason since signing him, and so on), but it's also no secret that nobody but the Mets really want him. The Indians passed up on the chance to bring back their past (apparently losing Thome and Ramirez as free agents has left them bitter and wouldn't allow them to consider trading for either). The Dodgers and Angels just can't add the payroll (and the Angels kind of have a thing about "negative clubhouse players" ever since that whole Jose Guillen experiment; interestingly they didn't win a single playoff game without him), and the Diamondbacks have been bankrupt for quite some time (despite adding Richie Sexson, Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, Russ Ortiz and so on since then), and the other options for Ramirez just don't add up. That really leads to one destination for Ramirez: Flushing, New York.

Omar needs to realize this, he needs to realize that Boston wants to move Ramirez. He also needs to realize that they want to save money so that they can resign Damon, go after Giles, and sign Beckett long term (and maybe go after his former teammate Burnett). Boston is at Omar's mercy, it shouldn't be the other way around. We just watched the Mets give up too much for Delgado, while the same Marlins were incredibly ripped off by the Red Sox (who by the way demanded that Florida throw in Guillermo Mota at the last second). Boston realized that the Marlins needed to dump Lowell on somebody, and that they would gladdly package real talent along with him (and it's not like having a gold glover who has hit before is a bad thing), it's your turn Omar. The Mets should not give up Milledge, Bannister, Hernandez (Gaby, the pitcher), Humber or David Wright (that's kind of obvious) to get Ramirez. Instead they should offer something like Xavier Nady and Jae Seo. It may seem ridiculous, but Boston may do it to remove that paycheck from their payroll. I don't know about anybody else, but I'd like this lineup in 2006:

1)Reyes SS
2)Beltran CF
3)Wright 3B
4)Ramirez RF/LF
5)Delgado 1B
6)Floyd LF/RF
7)Hernandez/LaRue C
8)Play the magical guessing game 2B

It might win a few games...

The words of the day...

"Minaya has made offers to both Bengie Molina, who played for the Angels last season, and the Padres' Ramon Hernandez. The deals are similar three-year packages worth $5 million-to-$6 million per year, according to a baseball official."

"Whoever was going to be out of the Konerko sweepstakes was going to look for a cleanup hitter," Minaya said. "So I said, 'Let me get this (the Delgado deal) done."

Hmm, in my "prediction" before, I stated that 3-years at 24 million was about what Hernandez was worth. If Minaya can sign him for 3-years at 15/18 million, that would be a great signing (in my book).

As for the Delgado comment, well, I kind of figured that Omar rushed this for one reason or another; although, it's been said that there weren't any other serious negotiations with the Marlins about Delgado, and that it was pretty much just the Mets and Marlins talking trade, so why rush this and overpay? Simple, the Phillies were just about done trading Thome and Ryan was having a good ole' time in Toronto. It's becoming pretty clear to me that the Delgado trade was rushed to further entice Wagner (and hopefully Hernandez) to sign with the Mets. Maybe if Omar waited a little longer the Mets could have given up less, and gotten more.

Projection for Delgado in 2006...

The more and more I look at this trade, the less I like it. To be honest, I feel like Minaya rushed and gave up way too much. He probably should have held out Petit untill the Marlins gave up more (forget the 7 million, I'd much rather have Mota or Castillo), but he didn't and we (as Mets fans) will just have to enjoy the new big bat in the Mets lineup.

So how will Delgado do next season? Without using ballpark factors (although I think that the move from Pro Player to Shea will only slightly benefit him) I'll try to get some kind of idea from graphs.



From the graphs, we can see that Delgado's IsoD would be about 0.101 next season, and his IsoP would be about 0.297. Those are pretty impressive, especially considering that Delgado's an easy bet for a .280+ average (.284 career average). Being that average is a stat that seems to bounce all around every season, let's just go ahead and use his career average for next season, and use these IsoD and IsoP numbers to figure things out (below them are the 2006 ZiPS predictions for Delgado):

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Player        AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Delgado      ---  --  ---  --  -  -- ---  -- ---   -  .284  .385  .581
Delgado      508  81  146  37  1  29 107  81 129   0  .287  .398  .535

For my predictions Delgado would end up with a .966 OPS, which is a .015 point dropoff from last season (not that much). The ZiPS predictions have him at a .933 clip, which is a .048 dropoff (that's a bit more significant). Either way, both of these have him as a very solid player next season, and at the least the second best hitter in the lineup (David Wright could very well be one of the top 5-6 hitters in the NL next year). As for how many home runs (for you fantasy lovers) and walks (considering a healthy season where he averages 686 plate appearances and 572 at bats)? To the graphs!



The graphs say that in 2006 (again, not factoring ballpark factors) Delgado will hit a long ball every 16.1 at bats (or about every 4 games), that would give him 36 homers. As for walks, well Delgado will walk once every 9 plate appearances (or about every 2 games), that leads to a grand total of 76 walks (both of these are slightly higher than his 2005 numbers, but that's because I'm factoring in more at bats and plate appearances). Let's look at the stats again!

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Player        AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Delgado      572  --  162  --  -  36 ---  76 ---   -  .284  .385  .581
Delgado      508  81  146  37  1  29 107  81 129   0  .287  .398  .535

I think I like the ZiPS predictions better, but let's continue on with mine.
Delgado averages 1 triple per season, so let's not even bother making a
graph for that. He also averages 1 stolen base, so let's just leave that as
1 as well. I really see no way that I can predictit his RBI and R totals, so
I'll just leave those as blanks, so I'll finish this prediction off with a stab
at doubles and strikeouts.



Okay, so that gives us 12.8 at bats for every double (about 3 games), which
gives us 45 doubles. We also have 4.4 at bats for every strikeout (or about
once a game), which gives us 130 strikeouts. Compare!

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Player        AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Delgado      572  --  162  45  1  36 ---  76 130   1  .284  .385  .581
Delgado      508  81  146  37  1  29 107  81 129   0  .287  .398  .535

I like the ZiPS projections better, but I see mine as a slightly better version.
Here's to hoping that Delgado proves both to be low!

Minaya's being forced to poney up...

"White Sox acquired 1B Jim Thome and cash considerations from the Phillies for OF Aaron Rowand, LHP Daniel Haigwood and LHP Gio Gonzalez."

"The Blue Jays have agreed to terms with free agent RHP B.J. Ryan on a 5-year deal worth 47 million dollars."

Ohh boy... So the Phillies free up some money (about 8 million a year) and the Blue Jays steal both the Mets and Phillies backup closer plan in Ryan (okay, they didn't exactly "steal" him). As soon as the Phillies traded Thome, they upped their offer to Wagner all the way to 3 years for 36 million dollars. The Mets currently have a 3 year deal worth 32 million on the table, with an option for a 4th year. The Mets need to up their offer, and they probably will. You can expect Omar to send the fax over with 4-years for 46/48 million dollars within the next few days. Let the race begin!

So who's catching?

"Mets' GM Omar Minaya said in a Friday press conference on WFAN-Radio that the team has extended offers to both Hernandez and Bengie Molina."

As of today, the Mets have that big bat at 1B and are now moving on to their catching void. Mets fans have been spoiled for quite some time when it comes to catching. Before the Piazza acquisition in 1998, the Mets had the super bat of Todd Hundley, who promptly fell apart afterwards (steroids have been a rumor). Now the Mets are moving on to the next era of catching in New York. This off-season presents quite a few tasty possibilities, but the Mets shouldn't limit themselves to just the free agent market, and thankfully they aren't. While Molina currently looks like Omar's favorite, it is hard to deny that Hernandez makes the most sense. Hernandez spent time with pitching coach Rick Peterson in Oakland, and has said that he not only understands Peterson's calling system, but also actually prefers it (Peterson supposedly has a change of calls for every count of the at bat, and for every situation outs and runners wise). Peterson has been for quite some time sweet talking management about Hernandez, and Hernandez has been telling San Diego papers the entire 2005 season that the Mets make a quite lovely destination. Put 5 and 5 together, and you get number 55 in a Mets uniform, right?

Not so fast... Bengie Molina is also a free agent, and he is also widely regarded as a superior defensive catcher who can swing that bat a bit. He is also accustomed to the "spotlight" (he's spent his entire career in LA and has been to the playoffs 3 times in the past 4 seasons, while Hernandez has been to the playoffs every year of his career except for 2004) and has family in New York that he says have pressured him to sign with the Mets. On top of that, the Reds are also listening to the demands from their catcher (Jason LaRue), he has demanded a trade out of Cincinatti if they don't resign him to a long-term contract (I guess that means they don't want to sign him?). On top of that, the Mariners are going to move Yorvit Torrealba and the Marlins and Devil Rays are looking to ship off their catchers (Paul Lo Duca and Toby Hall respectively).

In my opinion the best FA option is clearly Ramon Hernandez (2 years younger and a better hitter). I would also say that Jason LaRue is the best hitting option of all the catchers available, while Yorvit Torrealba is most likely the best fielder of the bunch.

2005 WinShares
------------------------------------------------------
Player       Games PA's  Inn  Batting  Fielding  Total
------------------------------------------------------
Hernandez       99  392  806      8.6       1.8     11
Molina         119  449  873      8.1       6.9     14
LaRue          110  422  915     13.3       4.4     18
Torrealba       76  224  537     -0.6       1.8      1
Piazza         113  442  809      9.7       3.3     13

If the Mets decide to bring back Piazza, then they would probably
be best off also making a trade for a third catcher (ala the 2005
Angels with Josh Pual). I would recommend a trade with Seattle
for Torrealba (nothing gets by him, seriously), say Royce Ring or
Ambriorix Concepcion in a one-for-one swap with Torrealba.
If the Mets want to make a trade for a starter, I would reccomend
a Jae Seo or Steve Trachsel for Jason LaRue swap (the Reds need
pitching, and both would probably be their "ace"). As for how much
Hernandez should cost as a free agent, I will take a shot at calculating
this. In my opinion, the fielding of a catcher should make up a little
less than half his value, while his offense should makes up a little
more than half; let's go with 45% and 55%.

------------------------------------------------------
Player       Games PA's  Inn  Batting  Fielding  Total
------------------------------------------------------
Hernandez      99   392  806      8.6       1.8     11

8.6 * .55 = 4.73 million
1.8 * .45 = 0.81 million
Total:    = 5.54 million

Averages 115 games per season.

162/115 = 1.41
1.41 * 5.54 million = 7.81 million


Clearly this is far from an accurate method to predict the amount of money
the Mets should throw Ramon's way, but I don't think this is too far off.
A 3-year 24 million dollar deal would make Hernandez the cheapest
planned everyday catcher for the Mets in quite some time, but it also locks
up a solid catcher through the rest of his prime. If the Mets end up with
Hernandez or LaRue, they could probably afford to go through a season of
Anderson Hernandez/Jeff Keppinger at 2B (not that I don't like Keppinger)
without looking for help offensively.

Mets officialy acquire Delgado...

"Mets acquired 1B Carlos Delgado and 7 million from the Marlins for RHP Yusmeiro Petit, 1B Mike Jacobs and 3B Grant Psomas."

Well, there we go Mets fans --we got that bat. With this trade, it's pretty easy to pencil the Mets in as the favorites for the NL East, but why in the world did they have to give up so much? The Marlins just traded Josh Beckett for so much less (albeit they included Mike Lowell and his ludicrous contract), and yet the Mets give up too much for Delgado, during a firesale. I understand that the Marlins had to ask for more from an in-division rival, but still. Minaya was better off not taking any money back from the fish, and instead dealing Jacobs, Psomas, and a lower value pitching prospect (such as Evan MacLane). So who got the better edge in this trade?

Marlins: ++++
The Marlins clearly had no plan to keep Delgado when they first signed him. They backloaded his contract (4-years/52 million) to have him payed just 4 million last year (leaving 4/48 on the contract) and gave him clauses to veto trades. This is clearly a franchise that has found itself in a poor situation: win two times in 6 years, and still draw no fans. The Marlins ended up spending 4 million dollars for one of the best seasons in the NL last year (Delgado hit .301/.399/.582/.981 with 30.2 batting winshares), and then turned around and made that into 3 pretty nice prospects. Great job Beinfest, it looks like you've got this "firesale" thing pretty well patented.

Mets: ++++
Wait, the Mets did just as well as the Marlins in this trade? Well, yes; the Mets desperatly need another big bat to compliment David Wright (Floyd had a nice season, but he was in no way that bat), Delgado fits in perfectly. While the Mets had to mortgage off a lot for this bat, it was well worth the risk. Psomas was blocked directly by Shawn Bowman at 3B (it's believed that he is more talented, and he is a better fielder) and most importantly by David Wright. While Petit may be one of the best pitching prospects in the game (144 strikeouts and just 24 walks last season in AA and AAA), he was not alone in the Mets system. They have plenty of other talents (Bannister, Hernandez, Pelfrey, Humber, Soler and a few more are right there with Petit) and they could afford to move him for a big player. As for Jacobs, well, this one is sad. Mets fans had to have fallen in love with this kid last year. He came up and hit the crap out of the ball and never gave up. He was a converted C and fielded like John Olerud at 1B (okay, maybe that's an exaggeration, but you get the point). This is the part of the trade that we can really compare.

ZiPS projections (2006):

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Player        AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Jacobs       468  62  125  26  1  22  79  31 104   1  .267  .318  .468
Delgado      508  81  146  37  1  29 107  81 129   0  .287  .398  .535

There is clearly a difference there (maily .080 points in OBP and .067 in SLG, leading to a whopping OPS difference of .147) and it's obvious that Delgado is projected to be a much better hitter next season, but is that worth nearly 13.5 million more dollars and 3 prospects? I'd say so.

Now, on to the whole Delgado's age deal...

One of the best indicators for career trends are IsoD and IsoP (isolated discipline and slugging), in which case let's track Delgado's for the past five seasons:

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Player   LG  Age  Year    AVG   HR   OBP  SLG   OPS  IsoD  IsoP  IsoO
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Delgado  AL  29   2001   .279   39  .408 .540  .940  .129  .261  .390
Delgado  AL  30   2002   .277   33  .406 .549  .955  .129  .272  .401
Delgado  AL  31   2003   .302   42  .426 .593 1.019  .124  .291  .415
Delgado  AL  32   2004   .269   32  .372 .535  .907  .103  .266  .369
Delgado  NL  33   2005   .301   33  .399 .582  .981  .098  .281  .379

Blue = Improvement
Red = Decline
White = Constant

I don't know about you, but those numbers are pretty damn impressive. Obviously he had an off year in 2004, but what's interesting, is that he bounced back in everything except for IsoD when moving from a hitters league to a pitchers league (more importantly, a park that favors hitters to a park that ruins hitters careers). This is bizarre, and suggests the Delgado has plenty left in the tank. The one thing that must worry the fan, is the fact that Delgado has not improved his IsoD since age 29, and it has dropped every year since age 31 (considerable amounts at 32). He will be 34 next year, and 37 when the contract is over. He will not be the same hitter, but it's hard to imagine him completly falling apart. For now and next year, the contract should be worth the hitter. The third year he will probably be worth considerably less (but let's hope that he won't have to bat higher than 7th at that point).

Cheers Mets fans, we got that bat!

Welcome aboard...

Hey, welcome to the blog. I'm just getting started off, but I'd like to share some of the goals I have with this blog:

• Become a site to read numerous Mets related and MLB related rumors.
• Become a site that a baseball fan can learn from.
• Become a well written and informed source for baseball information.

If you've never read any of my posts/opinions/articles, then I think that you might be in for a bit of a surprise. I have my ways of finding out some pretty interesting events in baseball, and I would say that I have a vast amount of knowledge about the game.

I am part of the "new-age" trend in baseball. I love stats, I love learning about the game and I just love the game of baseball. Being a Mets fan has been difficult, but recently it's been much better (thanks David). I am also a fan of the A's (not because of moneyball), and I will probably bring them up quite often.

I'm going to stop rambling and leave you off with this: Baseball is a game, a sport, a form of entertainment, a business, a school, and a way of life.