Projection for Delgado in 2006...

The more and more I look at this trade, the less I like it. To be honest, I feel like Minaya rushed and gave up way too much. He probably should have held out Petit untill the Marlins gave up more (forget the 7 million, I'd much rather have Mota or Castillo), but he didn't and we (as Mets fans) will just have to enjoy the new big bat in the Mets lineup.

So how will Delgado do next season? Without using ballpark factors (although I think that the move from Pro Player to Shea will only slightly benefit him) I'll try to get some kind of idea from graphs.



From the graphs, we can see that Delgado's IsoD would be about 0.101 next season, and his IsoP would be about 0.297. Those are pretty impressive, especially considering that Delgado's an easy bet for a .280+ average (.284 career average). Being that average is a stat that seems to bounce all around every season, let's just go ahead and use his career average for next season, and use these IsoD and IsoP numbers to figure things out (below them are the 2006 ZiPS predictions for Delgado):

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Player        AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Delgado      ---  --  ---  --  -  -- ---  -- ---   -  .284  .385  .581
Delgado      508  81  146  37  1  29 107  81 129   0  .287  .398  .535

For my predictions Delgado would end up with a .966 OPS, which is a .015 point dropoff from last season (not that much). The ZiPS predictions have him at a .933 clip, which is a .048 dropoff (that's a bit more significant). Either way, both of these have him as a very solid player next season, and at the least the second best hitter in the lineup (David Wright could very well be one of the top 5-6 hitters in the NL next year). As for how many home runs (for you fantasy lovers) and walks (considering a healthy season where he averages 686 plate appearances and 572 at bats)? To the graphs!



The graphs say that in 2006 (again, not factoring ballpark factors) Delgado will hit a long ball every 16.1 at bats (or about every 4 games), that would give him 36 homers. As for walks, well Delgado will walk once every 9 plate appearances (or about every 2 games), that leads to a grand total of 76 walks (both of these are slightly higher than his 2005 numbers, but that's because I'm factoring in more at bats and plate appearances). Let's look at the stats again!

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Player        AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Delgado      572  --  162  --  -  36 ---  76 ---   -  .284  .385  .581
Delgado      508  81  146  37  1  29 107  81 129   0  .287  .398  .535

I think I like the ZiPS predictions better, but let's continue on with mine.
Delgado averages 1 triple per season, so let's not even bother making a
graph for that. He also averages 1 stolen base, so let's just leave that as
1 as well. I really see no way that I can predictit his RBI and R totals, so
I'll just leave those as blanks, so I'll finish this prediction off with a stab
at doubles and strikeouts.



Okay, so that gives us 12.8 at bats for every double (about 3 games), which
gives us 45 doubles. We also have 4.4 at bats for every strikeout (or about
once a game), which gives us 130 strikeouts. Compare!

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Player        AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Delgado      572  --  162  45  1  36 ---  76 130   1  .284  .385  .581
Delgado      508  81  146  37  1  29 107  81 129   0  .287  .398  .535

I like the ZiPS projections better, but I see mine as a slightly better version.
Here's to hoping that Delgado proves both to be low!